12/11/2024 - Trim Equity Exposure **S&P 500 is up 75%, Nasdaq 100%, and many leaders are up 100-200%+. With elevated bullish sentiment, the rally may continue. I've trimmed equity exposure and taken profits in extended leaders:** [https://t.co/sowPCfUonI](https://t.co/sowPCfUonI) #Investing #MarketTrends 11/22/24 Outlook and Trends
A New Era of U.S. Prosperity The U.S. is poised for an exciting chapter of growth driven by innovation and a pro-growth environment. With advancements like AI revolutionizing manufacturing and healthcare, the potential to supercharge economic progress is unparalleled. A government focused on fostering growth, coupled with the world’s deepest capital markets, will attract significant investment to the U.S. This influx of capital, combined with a broader range of consumer choices, is likely to support economic expansion while keeping inflation in check.
In contrast, current policies—such as restrictive EV mandates, green building codes, burdensome EPA regulations, and higher taxes—limit consumer choice and hinder growth. A shift toward policies that prioritize freedom, innovation, and investment could unlock extraordinary opportunities for businesses and individuals alike.
The stage is set for the U.S. to enter a new era of prosperity, fueled by transformative technologies and a renewed focus on growth.
11/01/2024 $ISRG is on the watch list again today. It trades very tight making consistent higher highs. It has 6 consecutive quarters with > 20% EPS and very stable earnings. Intuitive Surgical is leading the way in AI enabled surgery and radiology. This industry will be total transformed by 2030. According to spiceworks.com, https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/artificial-intelligence/articles/industries-ai-will-disrupt/. Will believe the 2020's will be as influential as the Roaring Twenties that ushered in the great American lead industrial revolution. Our goal is to find those stocks and keep mentioning them so users can build large positions in these names hold them for years. Think of Google in the early 2000's, Microsoft in the 90's, RCA in the 1920's, Betheham Steel in 1915, etc. There is no stoping American innovation. https://twitter.com/AlertsEdge/status/1852373920910811562
10/19/2024 Research Topic - Given that fewer companies go public and PE has expanded, how can the retail investor benefit? Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has attributed the decline in initial public offerings (IPOs) to excessive regulation and costs. Dimon has also said that regulators should reduce the hurdles to going public.
Some reasons for the decline include: Private equity: Private equity funds have been buying public companies and taking them private. Mergers and acquisitions: Mergers and acquisitions have been a significant driver of delistings. Globalization: Consolidation has occurred in many industries to become more competitive globally. Regulatory burden: The regulatory burden has contributed to the decline. In contrast, the number of public companies in non-U.S. advanced and developing/emerging economies has increased.
We recommended $KKR on 8/28, and it's at a new high: two-quarters of >20% EPS growth, with >20% EPS & sales expected in the next four quarters. Breaking out of a 30-day cup/handle with accelerating RS. Poised to benefit from rate cuts driving more M&A deals." Another driver of PE is fewer companies are going public. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPM, has attributed the decline in (IPOs) to excessive regulation.
06/07/2024 With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday, I thought it worthwhile to lay out my thoughts both near-term and longer-term depending on your time horizon.
My belief is that over the next 3-4 years, Nvidia revenues are likely to roughly triple from current levels with the stock roughly doubling. However, before year-end we may be near a digestion phase for the amounts spent on AI over the past 1 ½ years since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.
In this regard, Sequoia, which is a prominent VC investor in the AI space including a lead investor in the seed round for $NVDA in 1993, did a presentation recently in March. Sequoia estimated that the AI industry spent $50B on the NVidia chips used to train advanced AI models in 2023 but brought in only $3B in revenue. I believe a slowdown in AI spending from the torrid rates seen over the past year will be healthy as companies figure out where this spend gets the return on investment necessary.
Large software vendors that just reported the April quarter such as $CRM, $MDB, $SNOW, $WDAY were optimistic on the benefits of AI to their businesses. However, future expectations were cut despite AI benefits as the economy slows, companies cut back on employees due to greater efficiency and the increased spend on AI is coming out of other budgets.
Even during the buildout of the internet, $CSCO, which became the most valuable company in the world in 2000, went through periods of severe stock declines as concerns rose about internet spend digestion. Cisco’s stock saw declines of 26% in late 1995, 38% in early 1997 and 37% in late 1998 as revenue growth rates while still hugely positive either declined or plateaued. Despite these intra-year declines, the stock was up during each of those years in total and increased ~4000% to its peak in 2000 from the end of 1994.
For perspective, Cisco, the leading enabler of the internet infrastructure buildout, since the end of 1994 (the launch of internet web browser Netscape Navigator) saw its revenues increase over 15x from $434M (Oct qtr of 1994) to $6.7B (Jan qtr of 2001) without ever having a sequentially down quarter. Nvidia by comparison since the end of 2022 (the launch of ChatGPT) has seen revenues increase by “only” over 4x over 1 ½ years from $5.9B (Oct qtr of 2022) to $26.0B (April qtr of 2024). AI spending driven by the biggest companies in the world is healthier today than the early spend on the internet when internet advertising models were unproven.
Obviously at some point an actual contraction in AI spend and stock prices is likely as was the case with the internet spend from its peak in 2000. Cisco’s revenues declined 36% in six months to $4.3B (July qtr of 2001) before starting to grow again while the Nasdaq declined 78% from peak to trough over 2 ½ years (and Cisco’s stock declined 89%.) However, I believe we are years away from that ultimate AI peak build out occurring but we will not know that until time passes much like back during the internet buildout.
4/3/2021 The rally gained traction this week with a confirmation day on Wednesday. Nasdaq added more credibility to the rally with a close above the 50 day and the 21-day lines and changing the exposure to 100%. Limit exposure to 55% until the market and recent purchases affirm the trend.
The stock market was closed on Friday for Good Friday. The Labor Department's March jobs report showed a nonfarm payroll gain of 916,000. Economists expected to see nonfarm payrolls up 625,000. Job growth should run hot as easing coronavirus restrictions and multiple stimulus packages spur a hiring boom.
This will surely incite inflation concerns. The Fed is nearing a crisis point if they continue to put forth the mantra that they will hold rates at zero for an extended period. This will upward pressure the 10 year.Treasury funding will be at records to the proposed infrastructure plan.